OVERVIEW: ” Windham – Bouncing Around the Bottom ??? “. Based on available data ,  overall Homes Sale prices in the Windham market appear to be stabilizing in 2009 . The overall number of transactions are off 12% from a year ago  ( 94 sold in 2009 versus 107 sold in 2008).   AND -  although overall median sold prices are also down  ( around 7% ) compared to a year ago - per sq/ft sell prices has steadily improved each quarter in 2009.     First quarter at $141.06 per sq/ft,  Second quarter at $143.75 per sq/ft  and Third quarter at $148.62 per sq/ft.    As always , only time will tell , but it is encouraging to see some signs of a possible “bottoming out “.  The length of time spent bouncing around the bottom will hopefully be the next widespread topic of debate and discussion.  In many peoples minds ( and pockets), that type of press coverage would be a positive sign in of itself .

Obviously – however – still a good Buyers market.  Perhaps the most favorable in 75 years -  BUT  remember  –  “Don’t get Trapped by – “It’s the Same Old Song ” Mentality”. ( my Windham blog from the second quarter 2009 ).  Eventually – all pricing does stabilize.  The signs are starting to consistently appear.  One of the only certainties in life is change and , in reality , only the lucky pick the absolute bottom ( and the absolute top).  Starting to feel lucky ??

Third Quarter Comparisons -  2009 /  2008. During the Third Quarter of 2009 , forty ( 40 )  homes were sold in Windham.  With a Median Sales Price of $416,000 and square footage of 2,799 this translates to $148.62 per sq/ft.  Days on Market (DOM) was 118 days.    During the third Quarter of 2008 forty-two (42) homes  were sold.  With a Median Sales Price of $463,250 and square footage of 2,932 this translates to $157.99 per sq/ft. DOM was 91 days.   Overall – a 6% drop in median sales price with fairly equal sales volume activity levels.

Looking Forward.  During the fourth quarter of 2008 35 homes were sold in Windham and the median sales price dropped dramatically to $385,000.  A median size of 2,901 sq/ft  per home resulted in equally dramatic drop-off to a median price per sq/ft of  $132.71 !!    Will there be another end of year clearance sale mentality in 2009 ??  Doubtful – in my opinion – last year appears to have been “clean-out ” time in this community.    Right now sales are on track at 35 units “pending” or “contingent” in Windham.  It appears that the sales activity should easily the comparable quarter of 2008.  There are 128 active listing on the Windham market as of 9/30/09.  At current (2009) absorption rates of 10.5 units per month this translates to a twelve (12) month supply of unsold homes – twice as much supply as what is considered “healthy” in a good market.

Savvy market watchers ask – “What could go wrong ???” One Answer:  a flood of foreclosed homes released onto the market . That would alter the current momentum we seem to be enjoying – in southern New Hampshire.   I keep hearing this “background music”  from undocumented sources.  Hopefully the really smart “movers and shakers” have figured out how to avoid this event. .   Keep your eyes and ears open !!

Next blog report will be after December – but please call or e-mail if any specific questions.  I always enjoy conversation and factual debate.  Thank-You and Take Care.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc for the period January 1, 2008 to September 30, 2009.

Contributed by :  Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group.  For further specific inquiries or questions please e-mail @ bill.spinelli@beangroup.com

Getting Unstuck from the Mud ???

One of the more predictable luxuries ( no pun intended ) of writing about the Executive Homes market ($500,000 plus homes)  is that there is a much sturdier foundation in place to fall back upon in times of crisis.  Ultimately this fact provides us with a more clearly readable vision of the future.  Like all market segments  -  the damage is the greatest and the most widely felt at the beginning of any downturn .  It is no great revelation that it is the less financially stable that help to “broadcast” the news  and pave the way for home price declines. However, what often varies the most are the “time lag factors”  for each different market segment .   ( The actual data  highligting the historical selling price ”time lag”  for the Executive Home market are found in my Blog written last May - “Lonely at the Top ???” .  Basically, the “top” was reached in 2007 for Executive Home sales. ). Once the majority of these less fortunate situations are cleared from the marketplace,  the more financially stable can begin to look forward to a return to “normalcy”.    Why more easily predictable ???   Two main reasons .  In general , (1) this is a much less populated market ( only 96 Executive Homes currently for sale in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis)  and  (2)  this market segment ( again – in general ) will stick longer to their pricing goals – i.e.  most often due to longer decision making time-frames.  Based on the home sales data from the Third Quarter of 2009,   there are very positive indications that we are “out of the mud” and have reached the “strong foundation point” in the Executive Home market in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis.

The politically correct are becoming “cautiously optimistic”.  There are subdued (but constant) positive  murmurings being both heard and observed in this marketplace.  Also – please remember -  this is New Hampshire  – not Las Vegas, not California, not Phoenix, not Florida, not Detroit, etc., etc.,   So - say it – and perhaps you will even feel a little better – as the numbers seem to indicate.

Nashua, Amherst and Hollis – Executive Homes Sold – Third Quarter Comparisons – 2009 / 2008. During the Third Quarter of 2009 there were ten (10) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $611,250.  Based on a median square footage of 4,221 sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $144.81 per sq/ft. During the Third Quarter of 2008 there were twelve (12) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $567,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,227  sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $134.14 per sq/ft.  Thus we have  almost an eight percent (8%) increase in sales price on a comparative quarterly basis.

Nashua, Amherst and Hollis – Executive Homes Sold – Nine Month Comparisons – 2009 / 2008.  For the first nine months of 2009 there were thirty-one  (31) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $600,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,162 sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $144.16 per sq/ft.   During the first nine months of  2008 there were forty-three (43) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $627,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,152  sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $151.01 per sq/ft. The Median Days on Market (DOM)was 135 during 2009 versus 102 during 2008 thus indicating that it is still taking longer to sell.

Looking Forward – Facts and Projections. In the fourth quarter of 2008 there were ten (10) Executive Homes sold in the Nashua, Amherst and Hollis marketplace. The Median sales price was $575,000 coupled with a Median square footage of 3,968 sq/ft resulted in a Median sales price of $144.90 per sq/ft.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter 2009 there are already nine (9)  homes that are under agreement and pending closing. The Median Asking Price for these homes is $559,950 and based on a median square footage of  3,768 sq/ft that translates to a projected Median Sales Price of $148.60 per sq/ft.  As always – we must wait for the facts.  However it certainly promising to see that we are showing solid signs of possibly having touched bottom in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period January 1,2008 to September 30, 2009.

Contributed by Bill Spinelli , Associate Broker, Bean Group.  For further inquiries or questions please e-mail at bill.spinelli@beangroup.com

“Sometimes – Stuck in the Mud is OK”

OVERVIEW. Homes selling at $500,000 or more in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis (“NAH”) enjoyed a solid selling price resurgence in the 2nd quarter of 2009 ( up 17% – per square foot – from the 1st quarter median selling price). More importantly however, median square foot sell prices mirrored those of the second quarter of 2008. Therefore the byline – “stuck in the mud “. It should be noted that the number of units sold were 25% less than during the same timeframe a year ago (14 vs 19). Psychologically, even that could be viewed as a positive (see below for questioning comments). There are currently four (4) more luxury homes on the market ( 92) than there were at the end of the first quarter of 2009.

There is this little throb in the background that makes one feel that being “stuck in the mud” is ok for the Sellers. Sellers get a feeling that prices are stabilizing. “Stuck in the mud” is not a bad deal for the Buyers either ! Buyers can still enjoy purchasing high end homes at prices very similar to 2004. ( see “Lonely at the Top” – April 2009 blog).

Have we reached the point in the high-end home market where we are down to the sturdy foundation? Do we only have Sellers that are “willing” (not forced ) to sell? Financially stable people are both willing to wait and capable of waiting. Are the remaining builders those that have finally proven to belong to the “survival of the fittest” class? This all would be the optimists view. However, even “mostly correct”, would certainly be a breath of fresh air – and stabilizing. As always – only time will tell the real story. Stay posted.

NAH – Executive Homes Sold – Second Quarter 2009. There were fourteen (14) homes sold at a median selling price of $610,000. With a median square footage of 3,864 this division translates to a selling price of $157.86 per sq/ft.

NAH – Executive Homes Sold – Second Quarter 2008. There were nineteen (19) homes sold at a median selling price of $665,000. With a median square footage of 4,232 this division translates to a selling price of $157.18 per sq/ft.

Six Month Comparisons – 2009 vs 2008 . So far in 2009, there have been 21 homes sold in Nashua, Amherst and Nashua (N AH) at prices exceeding $500,000. For the first six months of 2008 there were 33 homes sold. Once again, the number of units sold really only directly impacts the Realtors. As Buyers and Sellers you should mostly be focusing on the selling prices.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period January 1, 2003 to June 30, 2009.

Contributed by : Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group

Don’t get Trapped by – “It’s the Same Old Song” Mentality

Ok – this information is substantially more accurate than reading generalized economic articles or watching the nightly news – but overall the story remains consistent. When in a recession – it is a Buyers Market. Perhaps the best in 75 years !!

However – for you (willing) Sellers & ( heroic) Developers out there – please also read up because this information is also meant to try to help you defend your pricing. REO’s ( bank-owned) and Short Sales make up the bulk of the “great deals” out there. Try not to get dragged into that “same old song” relative to your pricing. For you Buyers – make sure the Sellers are doing their homework and pricing realistically.

Windham in an Overview: Prices appear to be stabilizing in 2009 – but about 9% lower than last year. The number of homes on the market in Windham is increasing – 149 active listings versus 123 a year ago – up about 20%. The marketing time ( “Days on Market” (DOM) ) is nudging lower. A ray of sunshine ??

Second Quarter – 2009. In the Second Quarter there were 32 homes sold in Windham. The Median Closing Price was $410,000, approximately a 10% decrease in sell pricing from the comparable quarter in 2008. A “median” home in Windham statistically consisted of 2,864 square feet and sold for $410,000 – therefore $143.16 per square foot. The median time it took to sell a house was 91 days.

Second Quarter – 2008. There were 47 homes sold in Windham during the second quarter of last year. The median selling price was $451,000. During this quarter last year a “median” home statistically consisted of 2,905 square feet – so the average selling price per square foot was $155.24 . The median time it took to sell a house was 103 days.

LOOKING AHEAD. During the third quarter of 2008 – 42 homes were sold in Windham. At the current time there are 16 homes “pending” and 12 homes under “contingent” agreement in Windham. Based on these numbers – the possibility of having a strong third quarter for sales in Windham is in place.

Last years pricing (median sales price @ $463,250) and per square foot selling price ( $158.00) were better than the second quarter of 2008. It will be interesting to see if the same upward trending patterns holds true for the 3rd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2009.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period April 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009.

Contributed by : Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group

“Lonely at the Top ???”

This real estate by-line is inspired by a great satirist of the everyday clichés of life – with an unusual sense of humor. For you more musically inclined ( and slightly older folks ) – Randy Newman.

Certainly – from a newspaper selling perspective – NH “follows” nationwide trends on a generalized basis. However, we should constantly remind ourselves that New Hampshire is neither California, Florida, Phoenix nor Las Vegas. I believe quite strongly that opportunities are the greatest in times like now – so hopefully we can uncover actual local conditions and potentially capitalize ( as both Buyers and Sellers) over “generalized” mentalities and thinkers. (more…)

There is an old business adage – “ Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly”. In the case of real estate, the obvious reason is to smooth out the highs and lows caused by the (generalized) obsession to finalize all transactions as close to the end of the month as humanly possible. This “month-end mentality” is often foiled by numerous causes – all somewhat related to the wondrous imperfections of humans being humans. Bank financing delays, scheduling conflicts, family obligations, weather ( viable during winter only), sudden health related issues, etc., etc. Hence, Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly.

However, lacking the inclination to be content with questionable short-term findings , this month I have decided to offer a look at home sales in our beloved Windham ( location, location, location ) more globally over a longer time-frame. This information indicates that the real estate market could be bottoming out in Windham, NH. ( Take that Las Vegas, Phoenix, California and Florida !!!). This possibility is based on evaluating home sales data – the number of sales and other trends relative to both overall and per square foot pricing during a six year time-frame ( 2004 – 2009). (more…)

First Quarter 2009 versus First Quarter 2008. In the First Quarter of 2009, 34 homes were sold in Nashua in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range.  The Average Selling Price was $239,500 versus 52 “solds” and an average price of $248,000 in the comparable quarter in 2008. These statistics translate to a 65% drop-off in the number of homes sold and a 3.5% decrease in average Selling Price.

The First Quarter 2009 “Average Home” was 1, 655 of above-ground finished living area ( AG – FLA) translating to $144.70 per square foot Selling Price ( Sell Price divided by Sq/Ft .) The similar comparison in the 2008 Quarter resulted in 1,412 AG – FLA ( above ground – finished living area ) and thus $175.65 per square foot Selling Price. This year-to-year Selling Price downturn is highlighted by the findings in “Market Reflections” (see below). (more…)

Real Estate Market Overview – Executive Homes In Amherst, Hollis, and Nashua NH

At the executive home level (greater than $500,000), some people have dubbed this three town loop the “technology triangle”. Both newcomers and natives revere these locations for the classic New England colonial, federal and farmhouse (New Englander) style homes. There exists both “old-money” and entrepreneurial wealth – with corresponding mindsets – throughout these three beautiful towns. (more…)

Pelham, New Hampshire

PELHAM – ONE OF SOUTHERN NH’S “BEST KEPT SECRETS”.

Twenty five years ago my wife and I were considering a move back to New England (from Oregon). I bought a detailed map of New Hampshire and went into a “trance-like” overview of the Federal and State major road systems. I discovered that Pelham was basically an island uniquely located amongst I-93 to the east, Route 3 to the west, I-95 to the south and Route 111 to the north and bisected by Route 38. Real estate is primarily about location. Location impacts life-style. Life-style impacts ..…and so on and so on. Twenty-five years later this location now affords a much broader range of housing styles, lot sizes and prices, yet still retains many rural activities (hiking, snowmobile trails, fishing, rod & gun clubs). Traveling time is not all that onerous to get you to (or away from) major work, cultural and other recreational centers throughout NH and Massachusetts.

A few years ago, while working on a fundraising campaign, I was referred to a small businessman from Pelham who invited me to his home business to collect some items he was donating. Surprisingly (!) we started talking about real estate. He went on and on about Pelham – how it had managed to retain its character, relationships old and new he had forged, holiday celebrations, why it was the greatest town to live in, etc., etc. I reflected back and then commented that all this was great – but why have so few outsiders ever heard about Pelham??? He looked at me and just smiled. (more…)

In the first quarter of 2009 there were 22 residential sales in Windham. The Average Sale Price was $399,500, approximately a 6% decrease in sell pricing from the comparable quarter in 2008. Sell Price to List Price comparison was at 95.9% indicating (overall) realistic pricing by sellers. An “Average Home” was analyzed as being 2,830 square feet of finished space translating to $141.00 per square foot selling price. Similar to last year, the average DOM was 161.

2008’s first quarter resulted in 18 homes sold in Windham at an average price of $423,000. The Sell Price to List Price was at 96.4% – again indicating realistic pricing. The “Average Home” at 2,878 square feet thus sold at $147.00 per square foot Selling Price . The average DOM was 167.

The Windham NH Housing Market – Looking Ahead

Second Quarter activity last year in Windham was quite robust- we hardy New Englanders – almost everyone seems to come out of hibernation simultaneously. There were 47 closings in the Second quarter of 2008 at an average price of $467,000. The Sell Price to List Price was at 95.7%. The “Average Home” at 3,040 square feet therefore sold at $153.50 per square foot Selling Price!!! ( See below for interpretive discussion on “averages” ) The average DOM was 128 – a significantly shorter selling time frame. It will be exciting to see how the Second Quarter of 2009 performs to 2008. There are currently 123 active listings in Windham – which is within a fairly consistent range over the above timeframes. Based on First Quarter results, it will be interesting to see if the upward sales trend continues !!

FOOTNOTES ON “AVERAGES”, COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS (CMA) and INTANGIBLES. Averages are a “tool” to be used very carefully. Useful to the extent of generating a starting point with a justifiable basis – “averages” nicely succeed in this goal. As we all know however – nobody really wants to be considered “average” – and most Sellers seldom view their home as being “average”. CMA’s remain the true analytical “lifeblood” for our clients. It is here that we can hone down on comparative reality through discussing home styles, lot sizes and numerous possible amenity characteristics to further augment our recommended pricing ranges. From the intangible standpoint, as professionals, we must also continually be genuine and succeed at holding our client’s interests first in priority.

Real estate is primarily about location. In my estimation – Windham has one of the best in all of New Hampshire. Close to Nashua with outstanding access to Route 93 has enabled Windham to evolve as a “bedroom community” for those seeking proximity to work as well as cultural and recreation centers throughout NH and Massachusetts. The larger lot sizes and more rural character of Windham are appealing and the education system often cements the sale.

All pricing and statistical information based on the information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. during respective timeframes discussed above.

Contributed by Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group