Getting Unstuck from the Mud ???

One of the more predictable luxuries ( no pun intended ) of writing about the Executive Homes market ($500,000 plus homes)  is that there is a much sturdier foundation in place to fall back upon in times of crisis.  Ultimately this fact provides us with a more clearly readable vision of the future.  Like all market segments  -  the damage is the greatest and the most widely felt at the beginning of any downturn .  It is no great revelation that it is the less financially stable that help to “broadcast” the news  and pave the way for home price declines. However, what often varies the most are the “time lag factors”  for each different market segment .   ( The actual data  highligting the historical selling price ”time lag”  for the Executive Home market are found in my Blog written last May - “Lonely at the Top ???” .  Basically, the “top” was reached in 2007 for Executive Home sales. ). Once the majority of these less fortunate situations are cleared from the marketplace,  the more financially stable can begin to look forward to a return to “normalcy”.    Why more easily predictable ???   Two main reasons .  In general , (1) this is a much less populated market ( only 96 Executive Homes currently for sale in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis)  and  (2)  this market segment ( again – in general ) will stick longer to their pricing goals – i.e.  most often due to longer decision making time-frames.  Based on the home sales data from the Third Quarter of 2009,   there are very positive indications that we are “out of the mud” and have reached the “strong foundation point” in the Executive Home market in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis.

The politically correct are becoming “cautiously optimistic”.  There are subdued (but constant) positive  murmurings being both heard and observed in this marketplace.  Also – please remember -  this is New Hampshire  – not Las Vegas, not California, not Phoenix, not Florida, not Detroit, etc., etc.,   So - say it – and perhaps you will even feel a little better – as the numbers seem to indicate.

Nashua, Amherst and Hollis – Executive Homes Sold – Third Quarter Comparisons – 2009 / 2008. During the Third Quarter of 2009 there were ten (10) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $611,250.  Based on a median square footage of 4,221 sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $144.81 per sq/ft. During the Third Quarter of 2008 there were twelve (12) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $567,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,227  sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $134.14 per sq/ft.  Thus we have  almost an eight percent (8%) increase in sales price on a comparative quarterly basis.

Nashua, Amherst and Hollis – Executive Homes Sold – Nine Month Comparisons – 2009 / 2008.  For the first nine months of 2009 there were thirty-one  (31) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $600,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,162 sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $144.16 per sq/ft.   During the first nine months of  2008 there were forty-three (43) Executive homes sold a a Median Sales Price of $627,000.  Based on a median square footage of 4,152  sq/ft  that translates to a Selling price of $151.01 per sq/ft. The Median Days on Market (DOM)was 135 during 2009 versus 102 during 2008 thus indicating that it is still taking longer to sell.

Looking Forward – Facts and Projections. In the fourth quarter of 2008 there were ten (10) Executive Homes sold in the Nashua, Amherst and Hollis marketplace. The Median sales price was $575,000 coupled with a Median square footage of 3,968 sq/ft resulted in a Median sales price of $144.90 per sq/ft.  At the beginning of the fourth quarter 2009 there are already nine (9)  homes that are under agreement and pending closing. The Median Asking Price for these homes is $559,950 and based on a median square footage of  3,768 sq/ft that translates to a projected Median Sales Price of $148.60 per sq/ft.  As always – we must wait for the facts.  However it certainly promising to see that we are showing solid signs of possibly having touched bottom in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period January 1,2008 to September 30, 2009.

Contributed by Bill Spinelli , Associate Broker, Bean Group.  For further inquiries or questions please e-mail at bill.spinelli@beangroup.com

“Sometimes – Stuck in the Mud is OK”

OVERVIEW. Homes selling at $500,000 or more in Nashua, Amherst and Hollis (“NAH”) enjoyed a solid selling price resurgence in the 2nd quarter of 2009 ( up 17% – per square foot – from the 1st quarter median selling price). More importantly however, median square foot sell prices mirrored those of the second quarter of 2008. Therefore the byline – “stuck in the mud “. It should be noted that the number of units sold were 25% less than during the same timeframe a year ago (14 vs 19). Psychologically, even that could be viewed as a positive (see below for questioning comments). There are currently four (4) more luxury homes on the market ( 92) than there were at the end of the first quarter of 2009.

There is this little throb in the background that makes one feel that being “stuck in the mud” is ok for the Sellers. Sellers get a feeling that prices are stabilizing. “Stuck in the mud” is not a bad deal for the Buyers either ! Buyers can still enjoy purchasing high end homes at prices very similar to 2004. ( see “Lonely at the Top” – April 2009 blog).

Have we reached the point in the high-end home market where we are down to the sturdy foundation? Do we only have Sellers that are “willing” (not forced ) to sell? Financially stable people are both willing to wait and capable of waiting. Are the remaining builders those that have finally proven to belong to the “survival of the fittest” class? This all would be the optimists view. However, even “mostly correct”, would certainly be a breath of fresh air – and stabilizing. As always – only time will tell the real story. Stay posted.

NAH – Executive Homes Sold – Second Quarter 2009. There were fourteen (14) homes sold at a median selling price of $610,000. With a median square footage of 3,864 this division translates to a selling price of $157.86 per sq/ft.

NAH – Executive Homes Sold – Second Quarter 2008. There were nineteen (19) homes sold at a median selling price of $665,000. With a median square footage of 4,232 this division translates to a selling price of $157.18 per sq/ft.

Six Month Comparisons – 2009 vs 2008 . So far in 2009, there have been 21 homes sold in Nashua, Amherst and Nashua (N AH) at prices exceeding $500,000. For the first six months of 2008 there were 33 homes sold. Once again, the number of units sold really only directly impacts the Realtors. As Buyers and Sellers you should mostly be focusing on the selling prices.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period January 1, 2003 to June 30, 2009.

Contributed by : Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group

“Lonely at the Top ???”

This real estate by-line is inspired by a great satirist of the everyday clichés of life – with an unusual sense of humor. For you more musically inclined ( and slightly older folks ) – Randy Newman.

Certainly – from a newspaper selling perspective – NH “follows” nationwide trends on a generalized basis. However, we should constantly remind ourselves that New Hampshire is neither California, Florida, Phoenix nor Las Vegas. I believe quite strongly that opportunities are the greatest in times like now – so hopefully we can uncover actual local conditions and potentially capitalize ( as both Buyers and Sellers) over “generalized” mentalities and thinkers. (more…)

Real Estate Market Overview – Executive Homes In Amherst, Hollis, and Nashua NH

At the executive home level (greater than $500,000), some people have dubbed this three town loop the “technology triangle”. Both newcomers and natives revere these locations for the classic New England colonial, federal and farmhouse (New Englander) style homes. There exists both “old-money” and entrepreneurial wealth – with corresponding mindsets – throughout these three beautiful towns. (more…)