OVERVIEW: ” Windham – Bouncing Around the Bottom ??? “. Based on available data ,  overall Homes Sale prices in the Windham market appear to be stabilizing in 2009 . The overall number of transactions are off 12% from a year ago  ( 94 sold in 2009 versus 107 sold in 2008).   AND -  although overall median sold prices are also down  ( around 7% ) compared to a year ago - per sq/ft sell prices has steadily improved each quarter in 2009.     First quarter at $141.06 per sq/ft,  Second quarter at $143.75 per sq/ft  and Third quarter at $148.62 per sq/ft.    As always , only time will tell , but it is encouraging to see some signs of a possible “bottoming out “.  The length of time spent bouncing around the bottom will hopefully be the next widespread topic of debate and discussion.  In many peoples minds ( and pockets), that type of press coverage would be a positive sign in of itself .

Obviously – however – still a good Buyers market.  Perhaps the most favorable in 75 years -  BUT  remember  –  “Don’t get Trapped by – “It’s the Same Old Song ” Mentality”. ( my Windham blog from the second quarter 2009 ).  Eventually – all pricing does stabilize.  The signs are starting to consistently appear.  One of the only certainties in life is change and , in reality , only the lucky pick the absolute bottom ( and the absolute top).  Starting to feel lucky ??

Third Quarter Comparisons -  2009 /  2008. During the Third Quarter of 2009 , forty ( 40 )  homes were sold in Windham.  With a Median Sales Price of $416,000 and square footage of 2,799 this translates to $148.62 per sq/ft.  Days on Market (DOM) was 118 days.    During the third Quarter of 2008 forty-two (42) homes  were sold.  With a Median Sales Price of $463,250 and square footage of 2,932 this translates to $157.99 per sq/ft. DOM was 91 days.   Overall – a 6% drop in median sales price with fairly equal sales volume activity levels.

Looking Forward.  During the fourth quarter of 2008 35 homes were sold in Windham and the median sales price dropped dramatically to $385,000.  A median size of 2,901 sq/ft  per home resulted in equally dramatic drop-off to a median price per sq/ft of  $132.71 !!    Will there be another end of year clearance sale mentality in 2009 ??  Doubtful – in my opinion – last year appears to have been “clean-out ” time in this community.    Right now sales are on track at 35 units “pending” or “contingent” in Windham.  It appears that the sales activity should easily the comparable quarter of 2008.  There are 128 active listing on the Windham market as of 9/30/09.  At current (2009) absorption rates of 10.5 units per month this translates to a twelve (12) month supply of unsold homes – twice as much supply as what is considered “healthy” in a good market.

Savvy market watchers ask – “What could go wrong ???” One Answer:  a flood of foreclosed homes released onto the market . That would alter the current momentum we seem to be enjoying – in southern New Hampshire.   I keep hearing this “background music”  from undocumented sources.  Hopefully the really smart “movers and shakers” have figured out how to avoid this event. .   Keep your eyes and ears open !!

Next blog report will be after December – but please call or e-mail if any specific questions.  I always enjoy conversation and factual debate.  Thank-You and Take Care.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc for the period January 1, 2008 to September 30, 2009.

Contributed by :  Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group.  For further specific inquiries or questions please e-mail @ bill.spinelli@beangroup.com

As we head into the final stretch of the 2009 I thought that it would be a good idea to look at the real estate absorption rate for Windham in three categories: first, Windham’s overall absorption rate (for an explanation of absorption rates go to www.chris-bonta.com), second the rate for residential properties, and third Windham’s absorption rate for condominium properties.

Although news regarding real estate has been more positive lately, the Windham real estate market has not picked up the sales pace, a good indicator of this is the fact that appraisers still consider Rockingham County to be in a declining value state. In calculating the absorption rate for Windham I analyzed properties between $50,000 to $1,300,000, and what I found is that Windham’s residential real estate market is continuing to exhibit very low activity resulting in an overall absorption rate of 14.5 months, with an average time on market for residential properties of 110 days and condominiums weighing in at 153 days. The break down of the absorption rate between residential and condominium properties does show that the condo market is not faring as well as the residential market, with an overall condo absorption rate of 18.27 months compared to the residential market rate of 12.65 months.

Windham property owners that are thinking of selling their home or should take a careful look at these figures, particularly the average days on the market.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period 10/01/2008 to 9/30/2009

Contributed by : Christopher Bonta, Sales Associate, Bean Group

Don’t get Trapped by – “It’s the Same Old Song” Mentality

Ok – this information is substantially more accurate than reading generalized economic articles or watching the nightly news – but overall the story remains consistent. When in a recession – it is a Buyers Market. Perhaps the best in 75 years !!

However – for you (willing) Sellers & ( heroic) Developers out there – please also read up because this information is also meant to try to help you defend your pricing. REO’s ( bank-owned) and Short Sales make up the bulk of the “great deals” out there. Try not to get dragged into that “same old song” relative to your pricing. For you Buyers – make sure the Sellers are doing their homework and pricing realistically.

Windham in an Overview: Prices appear to be stabilizing in 2009 – but about 9% lower than last year. The number of homes on the market in Windham is increasing – 149 active listings versus 123 a year ago – up about 20%. The marketing time ( “Days on Market” (DOM) ) is nudging lower. A ray of sunshine ??

Second Quarter – 2009. In the Second Quarter there were 32 homes sold in Windham. The Median Closing Price was $410,000, approximately a 10% decrease in sell pricing from the comparable quarter in 2008. A “median” home in Windham statistically consisted of 2,864 square feet and sold for $410,000 – therefore $143.16 per square foot. The median time it took to sell a house was 91 days.

Second Quarter – 2008. There were 47 homes sold in Windham during the second quarter of last year. The median selling price was $451,000. During this quarter last year a “median” home statistically consisted of 2,905 square feet – so the average selling price per square foot was $155.24 . The median time it took to sell a house was 103 days.

LOOKING AHEAD. During the third quarter of 2008 – 42 homes were sold in Windham. At the current time there are 16 homes “pending” and 12 homes under “contingent” agreement in Windham. Based on these numbers – the possibility of having a strong third quarter for sales in Windham is in place.

Last years pricing (median sales price @ $463,250) and per square foot selling price ( $158.00) were better than the second quarter of 2008. It will be interesting to see if the same upward trending patterns holds true for the 3rd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2009.

Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period April 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009.

Contributed by : Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group

There is an old business adage – “ Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly”. In the case of real estate, the obvious reason is to smooth out the highs and lows caused by the (generalized) obsession to finalize all transactions as close to the end of the month as humanly possible. This “month-end mentality” is often foiled by numerous causes – all somewhat related to the wondrous imperfections of humans being humans. Bank financing delays, scheduling conflicts, family obligations, weather ( viable during winter only), sudden health related issues, etc., etc. Hence, Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly.

However, lacking the inclination to be content with questionable short-term findings , this month I have decided to offer a look at home sales in our beloved Windham ( location, location, location ) more globally over a longer time-frame. This information indicates that the real estate market could be bottoming out in Windham, NH. ( Take that Las Vegas, Phoenix, California and Florida !!!). This possibility is based on evaluating home sales data – the number of sales and other trends relative to both overall and per square foot pricing during a six year time-frame ( 2004 – 2009). (more…)

In the first quarter of 2009 there were 22 residential sales in Windham. The Average Sale Price was $399,500, approximately a 6% decrease in sell pricing from the comparable quarter in 2008. Sell Price to List Price comparison was at 95.9% indicating (overall) realistic pricing by sellers. An “Average Home” was analyzed as being 2,830 square feet of finished space translating to $141.00 per square foot selling price. Similar to last year, the average DOM was 161.

2008’s first quarter resulted in 18 homes sold in Windham at an average price of $423,000. The Sell Price to List Price was at 96.4% – again indicating realistic pricing. The “Average Home” at 2,878 square feet thus sold at $147.00 per square foot Selling Price . The average DOM was 167.

The Windham NH Housing Market – Looking Ahead

Second Quarter activity last year in Windham was quite robust- we hardy New Englanders – almost everyone seems to come out of hibernation simultaneously. There were 47 closings in the Second quarter of 2008 at an average price of $467,000. The Sell Price to List Price was at 95.7%. The “Average Home” at 3,040 square feet therefore sold at $153.50 per square foot Selling Price!!! ( See below for interpretive discussion on “averages” ) The average DOM was 128 – a significantly shorter selling time frame. It will be exciting to see how the Second Quarter of 2009 performs to 2008. There are currently 123 active listings in Windham – which is within a fairly consistent range over the above timeframes. Based on First Quarter results, it will be interesting to see if the upward sales trend continues !!

FOOTNOTES ON “AVERAGES”, COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS (CMA) and INTANGIBLES. Averages are a “tool” to be used very carefully. Useful to the extent of generating a starting point with a justifiable basis – “averages” nicely succeed in this goal. As we all know however – nobody really wants to be considered “average” – and most Sellers seldom view their home as being “average”. CMA’s remain the true analytical “lifeblood” for our clients. It is here that we can hone down on comparative reality through discussing home styles, lot sizes and numerous possible amenity characteristics to further augment our recommended pricing ranges. From the intangible standpoint, as professionals, we must also continually be genuine and succeed at holding our client’s interests first in priority.

Real estate is primarily about location. In my estimation – Windham has one of the best in all of New Hampshire. Close to Nashua with outstanding access to Route 93 has enabled Windham to evolve as a “bedroom community” for those seeking proximity to work as well as cultural and recreation centers throughout NH and Massachusetts. The larger lot sizes and more rural character of Windham are appealing and the education system often cements the sale.

All pricing and statistical information based on the information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. during respective timeframes discussed above.

Contributed by Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group