Is Windham New Hampshire’s Real Estate Market Touching Bottom?
May 17th, 2009by Bill Spinelli
There is an old business adage – “ Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly”. In the case of real estate, the obvious reason is to smooth out the highs and lows caused by the (generalized) obsession to finalize all transactions as close to the end of the month as humanly possible. This “month-end mentality” is often foiled by numerous causes – all somewhat related to the wondrous imperfections of humans being humans. Bank financing delays, scheduling conflicts, family obligations, weather ( viable during winter only), sudden health related issues, etc., etc. Hence, Report Monthly – Measure Quarterly.
However, lacking the inclination to be content with questionable short-term findings , this month I have decided to offer a look at home sales in our beloved Windham ( location, location, location ) more globally over a longer time-frame. This information indicates that the real estate market could be bottoming out in Windham, NH. ( Take that Las Vegas, Phoenix, California and Florida !!!). This possibility is based on evaluating home sales data – the number of sales and other trends relative to both overall and per square foot pricing during a six year time-frame ( 2004 – 2009).
Jan – April 2004 to Jan – April 2009 Comparisons. Most newspaper and trade journal information seems to travel by word of mouth ( cocktail parties, seminars and abbreviated daily conversations ) to the majority of the general public. Consequently, general consensus seems to be that the real estate market topped out somewhere between late 2005 to mid 2006. Analysis of real estate sales in Windham NH seems to support those findings.
For Windham NH during the January to April time frame in 2004 there were 55 homes sold at an average sales price of $472,500 and an average per square foot selling price of $179.00. 105 Days on Market (DOM) was the average time required to sell a home. During the same time frame in 2005, 57 homes were sold at an average sales price of $490,000 and an average per square foot selling price of $182.00. Homes still typically took just under four months to sell ( 112 days) . In 2006, the numbers were 46 homes sold at an average selling price of $517,500 per home and $198.00 per square foot. The DOM average time leapt to 153 days ( over five months).
The data seems to confirm the later and more widely publicized accounts depicting that home sales in general were slowing down in this time frame. New home builders were still able to sell new homes at favorable pricing but it was taking longer to sell them. The “Sellers Market” was starting to lose some of its shine. And in 2007 – everybody knew that things had definitely changed.
During the first four months of 2007, home sales dropped off nearly 30% to only 33 homes. The average sales price was $502,507 with an average per square foot selling price of $180.00. DOM further slowed to over six months. In the same time frame during 2008, 31 homes were sold at an average sales price of $443,000 and an average per square foot selling price of $163.00. Homes again typically took just over six months to sell. In 2009, the numbers were 32 homes sold at an average selling price of $420,000 per home and $155.00 per square foot. The DOM average time remains at just over six months.
Good Realtors are optimists by nature. However, the need to substantiate optimism with facts remains the duty of any reality-based businessperson. I find the above findings encouraging that residential real estate conditions are stabilizing in Windham, NH.
Overall – this is the most interesting and opportunistic real estate market in 75 years. The Government is bending over backwards to help people buy homes. Low interest rates, buyer tax credit incentives, additional financing options for needed renovations – and more. (These very same factors work favorably for “motivated” sellers ). Take advantage of historic times.
WHY WINDHAM ??? Real estate is primarily about location. In my estimation – Windham has one of the best in all of New Hampshire. Close to Nashua and with outstanding access to Interstate 93 has enabled Windham to evolve as a “bedroom community” for those seeking proximity to work, cultural and recreation centers throughout NH and Massachusetts. The larger lot sizes and more rural character of Windham are appealing and the education system often cements the sale.
Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, Inc. for the period January 1, 2004 to April 30, 2009.
Contributed by Bill Spinelli, Associate Broker, Bean Group.
